From: Ken McKinley, Locus Weather, 207-236-3935, locuswx@midcoast.com

Forecast for Yacht Trip from Prince of Wales Island, AK to Ucluelet, BC

Desired Departure Date: Sat 29-Jul-06

Date and Time Prepared: Fri 28-Jul-06, 2000 GMT

At 1800 GMT Fri 28-Jul-06, strong Pacific high pressure was centered near 42°N/159°W with a ridge extending northeast to about 51°N/150°W, then north through the Gulf of Alaska into south central Alaska. Strong low pressure was centered in the central Bering Sea near 62°N/ 177°W with an occluded front extending southeast to the central Alaskan peninsula. From there, a weak warm front extended south- southeast to about 50°N/154°W and a cold front extended southwest to about 50°N/170°W. Another, weaker low was centered east of the Kamchatka peninsula.

The low in the Bering Sea will move north-northeast through this evening and tonight and will weaken as it passes through the Bering Strait later at night. The warm front in the Gulf of Alaska will move slowly east through the next couple of days and become much weaker as it approaches 140°W on Sunday. The strong Pacific high will shift west through the next couple of days with little change in strength. The ridge to its northeast and north, though, will erode through tonight and tomorrow, although the circulation of the high will continue to extend west into the southern Canadian and northwestern U.S. coastal waters. The low currently near Kamchatka will weaken and perhaps lose much of its identity tonight. It will redevelop tomorrow over the western Bering Sea and will move east into southeastern Alaska by early Sunday. Later Sunday this low will merge with another weak low over south central Alaska resulting in a stronger low over the Kenai peninsula Sunday evening with a cold front extending southwest to the south of the Aleutian Islands.

In the longer range, the warm front along 140°W will move east through Sunday night and become a bit better defined. It will move into the British Columbia coastal waters later Monday and will push inland later Monday night. Meanwhile, the low near the Kenai peninsula will remain nearly stationary through much of Monday, but its cold front will swing east to its south and by Monday evening this front will be nearing 140°W. The low will move north into central Alaska through Monday night and Tuesday, and the cold front will become weaker as it pushes east, likely reaching the Queen Charlotte’s Islands later Tuesday. The front will push inland Tuesday night, and a ridge will build north from a new high center in the eastern Pacific along about 135°W on Wednesday.

The general weather pattern will feature northwest winds for departure on Saturday, then a trend toward more west and southwest winds through later in the weekend, and more southerly winds Sunday night. A transition back to westerly winds will likely occur over the waters west of the Queen Charlotte’s Islands early next week while the southerly (and perhaps south-southeast) winds may persist longer over Hecate Strait. Wind speeds will be moderate at times, but both wind speeds and seas should remain within acceptable limits through early next week. There will be some upwind sailing required, but it appears that this situation will not last as long to the west of the Queen Charlotte’s Islands, so at this point, this is the preferred route. Seas will tend to be a bit higher along this route, but will still be manageable.

Conditions for departure from the southern end of Prince of Wales Island early tomorrow morning will feature northwest winds at 13-18 knots with seas running 3-5 feet in protected waters. As the yacht heads southwest through the day, wind speeds will increase to 15-20 knots, and seas will tend to build to 5-8 feet over more open waters, mainly in long period swells. Tomorrow night as the yacht turns more to the south to the west of Graham Island, northwest winds will ease back to 13-18 knots with seas continuing at 5-8 feet. Through Sunday winds will back to west-northwest by midday, and to west-southwest by later in the afternoon with speeds dropping off to 11-16 knots and seas subsiding a bit to 4-6 feet. Sunday evening winds will back to southwest at similar speeds, then later at night winds will back to south-southwest and increase to 13-18 knots. Seas will build to 5-7 feet later Sunday night. On Monday as the yacht moves into outer Queen Charlotte’s Sound, winds will gradually become more southerly and freshen to 15-20 knots by afternoon, with seas building to 6-8 feet. Similar conditions are likely Monday evening, then winds will shift to southwest later Monday night as the warm front moves off to the east and wind speeds will ease a bit to 13-18 knots. On Tuesday southwest winds at 11-16 knots are likely through much of the day as the yacht nears Vancouver Island, then Tuesday night winds will shift to northwest as the weakening cold front passes with speeds running 12-17 knots. Northwest winds on Wednesday will increase to 23-28 knots by afternoon over the Vancouver Island coastal waters as the ridge builds to the west.

It still appears that conditions are acceptable for the passage. The outside route seems to be preferable with a bit less headwind along this route. The seas will tend to be a bit higher, but will also tend to be mainly long period swells. Both winds and seas should remain within acceptable limits.

A bit of light rain along with some fog is possible Monday afternoon and evening ahead of the warm front, and a few showers are possible with the cold frontal passage later Tuesday, but extended periods of heavy precipitation or poor visibility do not appear likely.

Recommendation is to depart as scheduled on tomorrow morning and to follow the outside route. Very favorable sailing conditions should prevail for the first couple of days until the wind becomes more southerly later Sunday night and Monday. More favorable wind direction will resume later Monday night.

Call or email with any questions. If you need any en route update, just email and ask. I will be in the office early tomorrow morning from about 5AM until 9AM eastern time, then out for the rest of the day. I will be in and out through Sunday, then in more regularly on Monday.