Miles sailed days 16 to 18: 352
Miles sailed total : 2,260
Miles to Port Angeles: 2,649
A few days ago we noticed that the weatherfaxes showed a nice clear patch with no lows directly over us, but good wind from a low north of us. Time to make some tracks. So we’ve been screaming along pretty nicely for a couple of days now, mostly all miles in the direction we want to travel. Today’s surface analysis, which shows the current conditions, shows no lows west of us at all. Our friend Ichikawa told us in an email yesterday from Japan that the rainy season was done and the weather was beautiful and sunny. That must be good news for us, we thought.
The 72 hour forecast, however, paints a completely different picture. Sometime between now and then a big low is forming behind us and heading southeast. The last few have not been a problem, with pressure differential between them and the highs very small, meaning no big winds. This next one, though, is going to be trouble. It’s going south of us. That means (remember the earlier discussion – counterclockwise rotation northern hemisphere) we’ll end up with winds on our nose on the north side of it. But the choices are stay north and have gale force winds, or go south and have storm force winds. I don’t remember exactly what the definition of storm force is, either 40 or 50 knot sustained winds, but I do know we do not need that badge. We have the “2 gales in 2 days” merit badge from this trip already, that’s enough thank you very much.
What’s happening is that the low is farther south that the others, which so far have all been pushed north when they hit the northern edge of the high. This one is bumping square into the middle of the North Pacific high. When that happens, a squash zone will be created between the two different areas of pressure, until one finally gives. We have absolutely no idea what will happen with this one, and it’s too early for the forecasters to know either (and do they, really?). Will the low be pushed south of the high, and is that even possible this time of year (upon further though I realized this can’t happen – south of the NP high are the northeast tradewinds)? Will it be strong enough to split the high and drive a channel right through it? Will the high absorb it and force it to dissipate? Will it go north? We have no freaking idea.
What we’re hoping for, besides a basic miracle that makes it disappear, is to get inside the high far enough to not get completely flattened in the squash zone between them. Basically we’re looking for some protection from the high. But can we get there fast enough is the question right now. One option is to stop the boat right here and right now and let it blow over us. But that’s a difficult choice to make when we’re making such good time, and it’s far too soon to know what’s going to happen. It might be a decision we make in 2 or 3 days, but not today. Rob says, “right now we’re running from something that currently does not exist”.
Teresa
